Bitcoin’s Weekly RSI Flashes a 2022-Style Reversal Signal—But One Warning Is Getting Hot

Bitcoin’s latest rebound has delivered something more interesting than another round-number headline: a weekly momentum signal that resembles the setup seen around the end of the 2022 bear market.

The signal gives bulls a serious technical argument as Bitcoin pushes back toward $80,000, although the trend still needs confirmation.

Cointelegraph reviewed the latest TradingView readings and found that Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index has climbed to 58.3. That is its highest level since Bitcoin reached its latest all-time high in October 2025.

The weekly RSI has also been making higher lows while Bitcoin’s price made lower lows during 2026. That is the classic shape of a bullish divergence: price remains weak, but the momentum behind that weakness is fading.

A similar divergence began developing in 2022 before Bitcoin eventually completed that bear-market cycle. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, argues that the weekly time frame matters because it strips away much of the noise that dominates daily trading.

Setting global liquidity aside for a second and looking at this purely through a technical lens.

Weekly is the timeframe that matters here, that's where you read the secular trend and the cycle inflection points. Bullish divergences on the weekly RSI carry real weight – it's… pic.twitter.com/daI7BSAcnj

— Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) August 25, 2026

The distinction is important. Daily RSI has already surged to roughly 83, its hottest reading since November 2024.

A reading above 70 is commonly described as overbought, but that label is not an automatic sell signal. Strong trends can remain overbought for extended stretches, though fast pullbacks become more likely.

The weekly signal is more constructive because it speaks to the broader cycle rather than the temperature of a single rally. The daily signal is the warning label: Bitcoin may be building a larger reversal while still being vulnerable to a short-term shakeout.

Jonatan Randin, a senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, highlighted another echo of late 2022. In that period, daily RSI jumped from roughly 40 to near 90 during one weekly candle.

He sees the current move as evidence that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase, while stopping short of declaring the bear market finished.

This is another interesting observation I'm watching on Bitcoin.

To the left you have the bear market bottom of 2022 and to the right you have the current price action. At the bottom you have the daily RSI.

As you can see back in 2022, where we had an equal-sized weekly candle… pic.twitter.com/bQXVi3U1nZ

— Jonatan Randin (@JonatanRandin) August 24, 2026

The price move behind these readings has been substantial. At the time of this review, CoinGecko showed Bitcoin near $79,142, up about 1.1% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization near $1.59 trillion.

That market cap keeps Bitcoin overwhelmingly larger than every other crypto asset, so a change in its weekly momentum can reset risk appetite across the sector. The current price also leaves Bitcoin close enough to $80,000 for that level to remain an immediate test rather than a distant target.

The seven-day rebound has reached roughly 25%, according to the broader market data reviewed by Cointelegraph. A move that fast can improve the weekly structure while also making the daily setup vulnerable to profit-taking.

That is why the next pullback matters as much as the breakout. If buyers defend reclaimed support after momentum cools, the bullish divergence gains credibility; if price gives the move back quickly, the daily overbought warning will have arrived first.

Bitcoin’s two-month stochastic RSI has now produced a bullish crossover as well. The indicator did not fall to the extreme lows seen before some previous macro reversals.

Several indicators are leaning in the same bullish direction, but none offers a clean historical copy.

The next test is whether Bitcoin can convert momentum into durable market structure. Holding reclaimed support after the initial burst would strengthen the case that this is more than a squeeze.

Losing that ground quickly would suggest the overbought daily reading arrived before the broader reversal was ready.

For now, the weekly RSI divergence is one of the strongest signals Bitcoin bulls have produced in months. The next test is whether buyers can turn that signal into support that survives the rally’s first hard pullback.

Join the conversation!

We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, profanity, vulgarity, doxing, or discourteous behavior. If a comment is spam, instead of replying to it please click the icon below and to the right of that comment. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain fruitful conversation.