The Last Time XRP Shorts Piled Up Like This, the Token Rallied 127%

By Isaac • April 17, 2026 9:16 pm • Comments

XRP just surged 4.5% to $1.48 with daily volume screaming past $4.5 billion. And while the headlines are all about the Iran ceasefire and the broader crypto rally, the real story might be what’s happening underneath the surface in the derivatives market.

Binance funding rates for XRP have been stuck in negative territory for virtually all of 2026. That means the majority of futures traders are positioned short, betting the price will fall. They’ve been paying a premium to hold those bets open for months.

The problem for them? The price isn’t falling. It’s doing the opposite. And history suggests this kind of setup can get very uncomfortable for shorts very quickly.

Trending: Jimmy Vallee Returns! Have The G7 Nations Already Agreed On A Future Price For XRP?

The broader crypto market got a shot in the arm this week when Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz would remain fully open for the duration of the ceasefire.

Oil prices dropped sharply on the news, and risk assets across the board surged. Bitcoin ripped past $77,000 to a two-month high. Ethereum and XRP followed with authority, and XRP in particular posted its best single-day move in weeks.

But while the macro tailwind is helping everything in crypto right now, XRP has its own story building. Spot ETF inflows hit $11.87 million on April 16 alone, extending a four-day streak. And the number of wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 XRP just hit a record 1.1 million, according to Santiment data.

Coinpaper highlighted why the derivatives data has veteran traders paying close attention:

Since the start of 2026, XRP funding rates on Binance have remained mostly in negative territory. Negative funding means short traders are paying long traders to keep their positions open. That usually shows that a large share of the futures market is leaning bearish, even while the spot price begins to stabilize or move higher.

When many traders lean in the same direction, the price can move quickly if sentiment shifts. In XRP’s case, that setup has drawn attention because the last time a similar funding-rate pattern appeared, the token later rallied nearly 127%, moving from around $1.6 to $3.6.

That 127% move happened after Q1 2025, when a similar wall of negative funding rates crumbled under spot buying pressure. XRP went from roughly $1.60 all the way past $3.60 to set a new all-time high.

Meanwhile, the ETF machine keeps humming. Bitcoin spot ETFs brought in $26 million on April 16, and Ethereum spot ETFs extended their own streak to six consecutive days of inflows.

Finbold took a deeper look at the on-chain data behind the setup:

XRP Funding rates on Binance have remained predominantly negative year-to-date. Negative funding rates indicate bearish trader dominance, with more participants betting on price declines. Despite the bearish sentiment from derivatives traders, the price of XRP has gained 7.89% over the past seven days.

Institutional demand for XRP has rebounded over the past week, led by spot XRP exchange-traded funds recording significant weekly inflows. The next major resistance zone is identified at $1.80, the 2025 support level that could serve as the next target if the current momentum holds.

Nobody is saying history will repeat exactly. But the ingredients look familiar: record wallet accumulation, steady ETF inflows, a macro catalyst that just handed risk assets their best day in weeks, and an entire futures market leaning the wrong way. The $1.50 level is the next test. If it breaks, traders are watching $1.80 as the target. And if the shorts start covering, things could move fast.

Join the conversation!

We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, profanity, vulgarity, doxing, or discourteous behavior. If a comment is spam, instead of replying to it please click the icon below and to the right of that comment. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain fruitful conversation.

 

Search ProCoinNews