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A Top On-Chain Firm Says Bitcoin Is Flashing Its Strongest Bottom Signal Since 2023

By Jack • April 16, 2026 10:42 pm • Comments

Something unusual is happening in the Bitcoin derivatives market right now, and traders who have been around a few cycles are starting to notice.

Even with Bitcoin holding comfortably above $74,000, the crowd is still paying to be short.

That is not normal. And according to one of crypto’s most-watched on-chain data firms, it is the kind of setup that has historically marked the floor, not the ceiling.

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Glassnode says Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rates have fallen to their most negative levels since 2023, when Bitcoin was grinding along below $20,000 in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. The seven-day moving average has dropped to roughly -0.005%, meaning short traders are paying long traders around the clock just to keep their bearish bets open.

The twist? Price has not cracked. If anything, it has climbed. Bitcoin traded through the mid-$60,000 range in February, and has been working its way back toward the $75,000 line even as the shorts dig in.

Crypto news desk crypto.news summed up the data point:

That is the part of this story that usually catches my eye. Negative funding while price is climbing is a classic divergence. Either the shorts know something the spot buyers do not, or they are about to get steamrolled.

If you look at the historical map, the steamroller tends to win.

Crypto Briefing laid out the pattern:

Bitcoin’s funding rates have reached their most negative levels since 2023, according to Glassnode.

Historical patterns indicate negative funding rates often coincide with local bottoms.

This funding rate dip is a potential signal for traders looking for entry points.

Every major negative-funding stretch in Bitcoin’s trading history sits on top of a chart you would call a bottom in hindsight. March 2020 when COVID broke the market near $3,000. Mid-2021 when China banned mining and price fell to the low $30,000s. November 2022 when FTX imploded and Bitcoin touched $15,000. The Silicon Valley Bank scare in 2023. In each case, the fear in derivatives positioning bled dry and price went the other way.

CoinMarketCap explained the mechanics well:

A negative rate means short traders pay long traders, reflecting a market where bearish bets outweigh bullish ones.

Bitcoin funding rates have fallen to their lowest levels since 2023, even as the asset’s price has climbed steadily from the low-to-mid $60,000s to around $75,000 over March and April.

The duration is the other detail worth sitting with. According to K33, Bitcoin’s 30-day funding rate has now been negative for 46 consecutive days, which matches the streak seen at the 2022 bear-market low. Only two longer episodes have ever happened, both in 2020 and 2021, and both came early in bull cycles that eventually went on to make new highs.

Glassnode itself framed the current tape well in its latest weekly update:

Read that together with the funding data and the picture sharpens. Spot and ETF demand are building. Price is chipping away at the $78,000 resistance. And the shorts, the ones usually right at turns, have been wrong for 46 days straight and refuse to fold.

None of this is a guarantee. Crowded shorts can always get more crowded before they blow up. But the setup traders are watching right now is the one that has shown up at the floor of every cycle, not at the top.

If this one plays out like the others, the traders still pressing the short side into $75,000 Bitcoin are about to learn the same lesson this market teaches every two or three years.

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