Ripple and XRP-themed crypto items for a ProCoinNews article about XRP MVRV and holder losses.

XRP Bounces 8% as On-Chain Data Shows Holders at Historic Pain

By Isaac • July 4, 2026 10:08 am • Comments

XRP climbed about 8% over seven days to roughly $1.14, according to a July 4 report from CoinDesk.

The move landed while one on-chain gauge painted an ugly picture underneath. XRP’s 30-day MVRV sat near -45% and its 365-day MVRV near -47%.

Santiment called that combination the lowest XRP has ever reached.

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In plain terms, both recent buyers and longer-term holders are deep underwater at the same time. That is the kind of positioning traders start watching when they hunt for washed-out setups.

MVRV compares current price with the average price at which supply last moved on-chain. When the reading goes deeply negative, it means a large share of holders bought higher than where the token trades now.

CoinDesk reported on July 4 that XRP climbed roughly 8% over the week to about $1.14 while the token's holder-profitability data stayed deeply negative during the rebound.

The gauge behind the move is MVRV, or market value to realized value. CoinDesk explains it as a comparison between current price and the average price where XRP supply last moved, giving traders a rough read on unrealized profit and loss.

When MVRV is below zero, the typical holder is sitting on an unrealized loss. XRP's 30-day reading is near -45%, while the 365-day reading is near -47%.

That pairing puts recent buyers and one-year holders underwater at the same time. Santiment described the combined reading as the lowest in XRP's history.

The price bounce makes the setup more interesting, because XRP is rising while the holder base is still showing extreme pain. That can point to selling exhaustion if new demand keeps absorbing supply.

CoinDesk kept the signal measured. MVRV shows how stretched losses are; it does not tell traders the exact moment a market has turned.

Santiment is the primary analytics source for the MVRV signal, and its July 2 insight puts the XRP reading in historical context rather than only daily price action.

The firm said XRP's average trading returns are sitting at historic pain levels. It listed the 30-day MVRV at -45% and the 365-day MVRV at -47%, putting both recent buyers and one-year holders deep in negative territory.

Santiment said those two time frames, when combined, have never shown lower average returns across XRP's roughly 12-year trading history. That makes the signal broader than a quick liquidation flush.

The reading is about positioning pressure. Short-term traders are deeply underwater, longer-term holders are also underwater, and fear has become unusually stretched across both groups at the same time.

Santiment framed that as a better risk-reward zone than average because so much downside has already been absorbed by other traders. The firm also said XRP can still dip further if broader crypto markets keep struggling.

That caveat is the core of the setup. The data can show maximum pain, while the chart still has to prove buyers are strong enough to turn that pain into a sustained rebound.

BlockchainReporter added the holder-cohort read on the same Santiment data, focusing on how the losses cut across both short-term and longer-term XRP participants.

Its July 3 report said short-term traders and longer-term XRP holders are deeper underwater than at any point in the token's trading history, using the same -45% and -47% MVRV readings.

The report explained negative MVRV as evidence that a large share of the market is holding at a loss. That matters because underwater holders are often the source of forced or frustrated selling during weak markets.

When both the 30-day and 365-day groups show deep losses, the pressure is broader than a single bad week. It means recent entrants and longer-term buyers have both been reset by the selloff.

BlockchainReporter described the condition as capitulation-like, with fear and frustration dominating on-chain behavior. It also kept open the possibility that broader weakness can keep the asset pinned despite the stretched readings.

For XRP, the question is whether the latest 8% climb is the first sign of absorption or only a relief move inside a bruised market. The MVRV data gives traders the stress map; price has to supply the confirmation.

The clean read is straightforward. A deeply negative MVRV tells you positioning is washed out and selling pressure may be running low.

It does not confirm that the low is in. Price still has to prove that fresh buyers can absorb supply and hold the bounce above where old holders got trapped.

The 8% pop is a start. Whether it turns into something durable depends on demand showing up, not on the pain gauge alone.

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