Bitcoin’s $85,000 Wall Puts Four Million BTC Between Recovery and Resistance
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October 29, 2026 7:13 pm
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Bitcoin is approaching a price zone packed with investors who have been waiting months to get back to even. Roughly 4 million BTC held by long-term owners was bought between $85,000 and $118,000, creating a potential wall of supply just above the current market.
Decrypt summarized Glassnode’s latest market work, which puts Bitcoin near the average entry price of U.S. spot ETF holders while a much larger block of older coins remains underwater. That combination makes the next few thousand dollars unusually important.
Glassnode said the $84,000-to-$85,000 band has rejected Bitcoin four times this year. The asset has closed above $85,000 on only five days since January and never held there for more than three consecutive sessions.
$85K keeps turning $BTC back. Since January, Bitcoin has closed above it on only five days, never more than three in a row. It's a truly tough level to break. More in depth analysis in our latest Week on Chain report https://t.co/xy8lE3ilt3
— glassnode (@glassnode) October 28, 2026
The resistance represents real cost basis. Long-term holders—defined by Glassnode as wallets holding coins for more than 155 days—own about 4 million BTC purchased between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly during 2025.
At roughly $81,400 per Bitcoin, that block was worth about $326 billion.
Spot ETF buyers sit much closer to the market. Estimates put their average cost between roughly $81,500 and just under $82,000, a level Bitcoin has traded around since late August.
NEW: Here's an updated look at Bitcoin's price compared to the average cost basis for US ETF Holders. We estimate the cost bases to be just under $82,000. Bitcoin has been dancing around that level since the end of August. pic.twitter.com/d6L8Ys2dtT
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 28, 2026
ETF holders do not need a major rally to move back into profit. A sustained push above their average entry could improve sentiment and attract fresh allocation.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $424 million from Monday through Wednesday after $635 million left the products on October 22.
The market is not showing the same degree of panic seen during earlier dips. Glassnode found that realized losses have diminished with each downturn since August. The problem is less a rush for the exits than a shortage of new buying strong enough to absorb sellers near break-even.
That leaves Bitcoin in a narrow test. A clean break above $85,000 would force the market to absorb supply from holders who have waited for an exit.
Failure there would keep the recovery trapped between roughly $75,000 and $85,000. The next move will reveal whether ETF demand can carry more than the weight of its own cost basis.
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