A physical Bitcoin token beside U.S. currency as market-cycle indicators turn positive

CryptoQuant CEO Says Bitcoin’s Bear Cycle Is Over as Key Indicator Turns Positive

By Isaac • August 28, 2026 11:20 am • Comments

Bitcoin just produced one of its clearest onchain recovery signals in months, but the market has not finished proving the bullish case.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s 2026 bear cycle is over after the firm’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator moved back above zero. The latest reading, 0.042, is the first positive print since early October 2025.

Cointelegraph reports that the move resembles the signal seen in early 2023, when Bitcoin was beginning to recover from the previous cycle’s lows. That comparison matters because it points to a potential change in the larger trend instead of another short bounce.

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The indicator is built to measure whether investor profitability is improving enough to support a bullish phase. It compares CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index with its 365-day moving average.

That underlying index combines several widely watched onchain measures, including market value to realized value, net unrealized profit and loss, and spent output profit ratio. In plain English, it asks whether Bitcoin holders are moving from broad stress and loss toward healthier profitability.

Ki put his conclusion in unusually direct terms.

The historical comparison is encouraging. Bitcoin’s latest cycle low came in February near $60,000, and the same indicator remained below zero through much of the recovery that followed.

A positive reading suggests that the balance between realized losses, unrealized gains and holder behavior has finally shifted.

Still, one indicator does not settle the argument.

Bitcoin was trading near $78,180 when this article was prepared, with a market capitalization of roughly $1.57 trillion. Current CoinGecko data kept Bitcoin firmly in the number-one position by market value, but also showed the asset down about 2.5% over 24 hours.

That combination captures the tension. The long-range onchain picture may be improving even as price struggles to reclaim $80,000 and traders debate whether enough fresh demand exists to carry Bitcoin through the next band of resistance.

The CryptoQuant dashboard behind the signal is best read as a cycle gauge, not a short-term trading guarantee. A positive value points toward a bullish phase as holder profitability improves, but it does not promise that every daily candle will rise or that a breakout cannot fail.

The current price structure puts the confirmation test directly in front of the market: Bitcoin’s August monthly close.

A close above the descending macro trend line would give the onchain signal visible price confirmation. A rejection below it would keep open the possibility that Bitcoin has formed another lower high rather than a durable trend reversal.

For long-term holders, the constructive takeaway is that profitability metrics are no longer behaving like a market trapped in its deepest bearish phase. For traders, the message is more disciplined: watch the monthly close, watch liquidity above $80,000, and do not confuse an improving cycle signal with a guaranteed straight-line rally.

Bitcoin may have crossed an important line under the surface. The next few days will show whether price is ready to follow.

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