Bitcoin climbing toward a dense wall of dormant Bitcoin supply

Bitcoin’s Next Rally Faces an 874,000 BTC Breakeven Test

By Isaac • October 27, 2026 3:12 pm • Comments

Bitcoin has a simple problem waiting above the market: a huge group of buyers may be ready to sell the moment they get their money back.

CryptoSlate, citing Bitfinex’s October 26 market report, says roughly 874,000 BTC was accumulated between $81,000 and $82,500. Bitcoin is now trading below that zone after losing the $81,300 level that had supported the market for weeks.

That turns former support into a breakeven test. Holders who bought in the band can use a rebound to reduce exposure without accepting the loss they faced below $80,000.

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Bitfinex said Bitcoin closed below $81,300 on October 22, 23 and 24 after a failed recovery toward $84,930. The slide reached roughly $79,250 on October 24, about 9.3% below the September high, leaving the old support band directly overhead.

The 874,000 BTC is potential supply, not a sell order.

The estimate tracks coins associated with an acquisition range. Those coins are not standing sell orders, yet even a fraction returning to market could slow a recovery if new demand stays narrow.

Bitcoin fell as low as roughly $79,370 over the latest 24-hour period before recovering toward $80,100. Bitfinex identified liquidation concentrations around $82,300 to $83,000, creating the possibility of a short squeeze if buyers force price through the same area that may attract breakeven sellers.

That is why the zone matters from both directions. A weak rebound can run into holder supply; a strong break can force short positions to unwind and add fuel.

ETF demand is back, but it is not broad yet.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $110.3 million on October 26, according to the report, but the entire inflow came through BlackRock’s IBIT. Every other listed fund was flat after two withdrawal sessions totaling $773.5 million.

Recent Farside Investors data shows how quickly the flow picture can change. A strong $524.8 million session on October 21 did not prevent the market from weakening days later.

The market therefore needs more than one fund and one good session to absorb a large band of potential supply. The cleaner signal would be sustained inflows across several issuers while Bitcoin retakes the old support zone.

The Fed puts a clock on the setup.

The Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision arrives while futures positioning is rising. Bitfinex said aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest increased from 645,411 BTC on October 21 to 669,253 BTC on October 25 even as price declined.

Benjamin Cowen’s current market view also treats a move back above $83,000 as the line that would challenge the bearish setup, with the Fed decision and the next inflation reading directly behind it.

Bitfinex also sees about 739,000 BTC accumulated between $77,500 and $80,000, which could provide support on another decline. That leaves Bitcoin squeezed between a large buyer base below and a larger breakeven band above.

The next rally does not need every one of those 874,000 coins to move. It only needs enough sellers to appear before ETF and spot demand is ready to take the other side.

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